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Updated September 26, 2026 · Category: Geopolitics & World · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 26, 2026 at 02:04 UTC, the leading outcome is #3 at 15.5%, followed by #1 at 8.5%. The market has $257.4K in total volume and $9.9K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| #10 (settled) | 100% | +2.3 pts | $50.1K |
| #5 (settled) | 100% | +61.3 pts | $49.2K |
| #3 | 15.5% | +3.0 pts | $55.7K |
| #1 | 8.5% | -0.5 pts | $102.4K |
Total volume $257.4K · 24h volume $9.9K · Liquidity $24.0K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ #3 ■ #1 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: China & Taiwan odds · AI odds · Big Tech odds
As of September 26, 2026 at 02:04 UTC, the leading outcome is #3 at 15.5%, followed by #1 at 8.5%. The market has $257.4K in total volume and $9.9K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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