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Updated September 28, 2026 · Category: Geopolitics & World · Market end date: December 31, 2026
As of September 28, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 17% (No 83%), with $186.7K traded in total and $423 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 17% | +0.5 pts | $186.7K |
| No | 83% | -0.5 pts | — |
Total volume $186.7K · 24h volume $423 · Liquidity $4.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Middle East odds · Oil & Commodities odds · Geopolitics odds
As of September 28, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 17% (No 83%), with $186.7K traded in total and $423 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is December 31, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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