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Updated October 1, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: December 31, 2026
As of October 1, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 10.5%, followed by By October 31 at 4.5%, By September 30 at 0.1%. The market has $56.4K in total volume and $539 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 10.5% | — | $21.5K |
| By October 31 | 4.5% | — | $22.4K |
| By September 30 | 0.1% | -0.4 pts | $12.4K |
Total volume $56.4K · 24h volume $539 · Liquidity $47.0K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 ■ By October 31 ■ By September 30 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Ukrainian airspace has been closed to air traffic since the full-scale invasion by the Russian Federation on February 24, 2022. Boryspil International Airport (KBP / UKBB), located near Kyiv, suspended all routine operations immediately following the start of hostilities, and routine and general flights remain suspended.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one manned aircraft successfully lands at or takes off from Boryspil International Airport between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Eligible flights include any manned fixed-wing aircraft or rotorcraft (helicopter), regardless of registration, owner, or purpose (e.g., commercial passenger, cargo, military transport, diplomatic or state flight, technical ferry, or emergency landing).
Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs, drones, or loitering munitions), touch-and-go passes without a full touchdown and stop or taxi, and landings or departures occurring outside the physical boundaries of Boryspil International Airport will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be verified radar and ADS-B flight tracking data (e.g., Flightradar24, ADS-B Exchange) and official announcements from Boryspil International Airport, the State Aviation Administration of Ukraine, or the Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Russia–Ukraine War odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 1, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 10.5%, followed by By October 31 at 4.5%, By September 30 at 0.1%. The market has $56.4K in total volume and $539 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is December 31, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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