Home › Polymarket odds › Politics & Elections
Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2026 at 3.2%. The market has $1.42M in total volume and $0 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31, 2026 | 3.2% | -0.1 pts | $400.9K |
| By June 30, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $741.1K |
| By December 31, 2025 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $277.0K |
Total volume $1.42M · 24h volume $0 · Liquidity $13.0K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
🔔 Get alerts when big markets move — free Telegram watchlist
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2026 at 3.2%. The market has $1.42M in total volume and $0 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
Paste this on your site, blog or newsletter. It updates with our page. How to embed
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/odds/will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Will any country leave NATO? odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025/">Will any country leave NATO? odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/odds/will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025.json — CC BY 4.0, credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link. See the developer docs.
Polymarket View, “Will any country leave NATO? — Polymarket odds”, September 24, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
For READMEs, newsletters and forums. Markdown:
[](https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025/)
HTML:
<a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025/"><img src="https://polymarkettrader.com/badge/odds/will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025.svg" alt="Will any country leave NATO? odds on Polymarket" width="400" height="64"></a>
Polymarket View is an independent research site, not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All Polymarket odds · Event hubs · Blog