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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2026 at 5.0%. The market has $46.5K in total volume and $473 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31, 2026 | 5.0% | -0.3 pts | $16.8K |
| By June 30, 2026 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.2 pts | $29.7K |
Total volume $46.5K · 24h volume $473 · Liquidity $3.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Argentina begins to peg its currency to the United States dollar (USD), or adopts the United States dollar as official legal tender, June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement that dollarization will begin will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" - for this market to resolve to "Yes", dollarization must have actually begun.
Note: a peg does not need to be 1:1 to USD.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting indicating either of the listed scenarios have begun.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: US Economy odds · Politics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2026 at 5.0%. The market has $46.5K in total volume and $473 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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