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Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? — Polymarket Odds

Updated September 23, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 1, 2026

As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 0.4% (No 99.7%), with $2.18M traded in total and $5.9K in the last 24 hours.

Current odds

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Volume
Yes	0.4%	-0.1 pts	$2.18M
No	99.7%	+0.1 pts	—

Total volume $2.18M · 24h volume $5.9K · Liquidity $99.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.

30-day price history

■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.

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Frequently asked questions

What are the current Polymarket odds for Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 0.4% (No 99.7%), with $2.18M traded in total and $5.9K in the last 24 hours.

When does the Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026 market end?

The event's listed end date is October 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.

How are these odds calculated?

They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.

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Polymarket View, “Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? — Polymarket odds”, September 23, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).

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