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Updated October 17, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 17, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 2.1% (No 97.9%), with $80.8K traded in total and $1.2K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2.1% | +0.2 pts | $80.8K |
| No | 97.9% | -0.2 pts | — |
Total volume $80.8K · 24h volume $1.2K · Liquidity $68.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Iran odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 17, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 2.1% (No 97.9%), with $80.8K traded in total and $1.2K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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