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Updated September 25, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 25, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 4.0% (No 96%), with $108.8K traded in total and $417 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4.0% | +0.9 pts | $108.8K |
| No | 96% | -0.9 pts | — |
Total volume $108.8K · 24h volume $417 · Liquidity $14.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy incorporated is margin called on any of its Bitcoin-backed loans by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, resulting in either a forced liquidation of Bitcoin by a lender or MicroStrategy posting additional collateral or making a loan repayment in response to the margin call. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A margin call is defined as a lender formally requiring MicroStrategy to either provide additional collateral or repay part of a loan due to the value of Bitcoin collateral falling below the required loan-to-value (LTV) ratio. Voluntary Bitcoin sales by MicroStrategy that are not explicitly in response to a margin call will not count.
The primary resolution sources will be SEC filings, official MicroStrategy statements, and a consensus of credible financial reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 25, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 4.0% (No 96%), with $108.8K traded in total and $417 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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