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Updated September 23, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 12.5%, followed by By September 30 at 1.1%. The market has $2.27M in total volume and $152 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 12.5% | +0.5 pts | $25.9K |
| By September 30 | 1.1% | — | $1.33M |
| By January 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.2 pts | $369.7K |
| By February 28 (settled) | 0.0% | +0.7 pts | $259.6K |
| By March 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -3.0 pts | $247.1K |
| By April 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $38.9K |
| By May 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.5 pts | $3.5K |
Total volume $2.27M · 24h volume $152 · Liquidity $2.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 ■ By September 30 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Stepnohirsk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Prymorske" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Once Russia captures the entirety of Stepnohirsk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/CwF1b64Qo49PvUZw5
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Russia–Ukraine War odds
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 12.5%, followed by By September 30 at 1.1%. The market has $2.27M in total volume and $152 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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