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Updated September 23, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 6.5%, followed by By September 30 at 0.7%. The market has $3.07M in total volume and $3.8K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 6.5% | +1.0 pts | $519.7K |
| By September 30 | 0.7% | -0.9 pts | $129.6K |
| By December 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.6 pts | $764.8K |
| By March 31 (settled) | 0.0% | +1.5 pts | $696.1K |
| By June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -1.3 pts | $354.8K |
| By April 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.2 pts | $198.6K |
| By November 30 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $142.1K |
| By May 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.7 pts | $105.2K |
| By February 28 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.3 pts | $86.1K |
| By January 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -1.5 pts | $72.0K |
Total volume $3.07M · 24h volume $3.8K · Liquidity $45.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 ■ By September 30 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Russia–Ukraine War odds
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 6.5%, followed by By September 30 at 0.7%. The market has $3.07M in total volume and $3.8K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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