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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: January 15, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is ↑ 7.00% at 99.5%, followed by ↓ 6.50% at 51%, ↑ 7.25% at 31.5%. The market has $92.1K in total volume and $1.3K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 6.30% (settled) | 100% | -1.5 pts | $29.4K |
| ↑ 6.50% (settled) | 100% | +13.5 pts | $6.9K |
| ↑ 6.75% (settled) | 100% | +2.2 pts | $5.5K |
| ↓ 6.00% (settled) | 100% | +27.5 pts | $673 |
| ↑ 6.20% (settled) | 100% | — | — |
| ↑ 7.00% | 99.5% | +9.5 pts | $6.8K |
| ↓ 6.50% | 51% | -1.5 pts | $9.4K |
| ↑ 7.25% | 31.5% | +2.5 pts | $2.2K |
| ↑ 7.50% | 26.5% | +8.5 pts | $74 |
| ↓ 6.00% | 16.5% | -0.5 pts | $3.4K |
| ↓ 6.25% | 16.5% | -12.0 pts | $1.5K |
| ↓ 5.90% | 3.4% | — | $11.5K |
| ↓ 5.50% | 3.3% | — | $2.8K |
| ↓ 5.70% | 1.8% | +0.1 pts | $12.0K |
Total volume $92.1K · 24h volume $1.3K · Liquidity $3.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ ↑ 7.00% ■ ↓ 6.50% ■ ↑ 7.25% · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: US Economy odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is ↑ 7.00% at 99.5%, followed by ↓ 6.50% at 51%, ↑ 7.25% at 31.5%. The market has $92.1K in total volume and $1.3K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 15, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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