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Updated October 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 24, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 9.0% (No 91%), with $21.8K traded in total and $596 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9.0% | +1.0 pts | $21.8K |
| No | 91% | -1.0 pts | — |
Total volume $21.8K · 24h volume $596 · Liquidity $17.7K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates new legal authority for the federal government to exercise direct administrative control over the previously-localized administration of federal elections by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying legislation or action must seek to grant continuing federal control over previously-localized (State-level or local-level) vote-counting, vote certification, or actual election-day voting in federal elections for jurisdictions in more than one state. Temporary federal support to local election authorities, or the execution of previously-recognized federal election duties, will not count.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · 2028 Presidential Election odds · Politics odds
As of October 24, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 9.0% (No 91%), with $21.8K traded in total and $596 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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