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Updated October 5, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 5, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 2.8% (No 97.2%), with $23.2K traded in total and $3.2K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2.8% | +0.4 pts | $23.2K |
| No | 97.2% | -0.4 pts | — |
Total volume $23.2K · 24h volume $3.2K · Liquidity $22.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues any executive order to, or signs any bill into law to, or otherwise takes action to officially rename any ocean by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For the purposes of this market, the oceans are defined as: the Atlantic Ocean, the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, the Arctic Ocean, and the Southern/Antarctic Ocean.
Officially renaming any one of these five oceans is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of the new name chosen. Renaming a subdivision of one of these oceans, such as the North Atlantic Ocean or the South Pacific Ocean, will also qualify.
If the U.S. Board on Geographic Names (BGN) renames any of the five oceans accordingly this will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Renaming any other body of water, including any sea, gulf, bay, strait, channel, or lake, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration or the U.S. Board on Geographic Names, however a consensus of credible reporting stating that the US Government has renamed one of the five oceans will suffice.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 5, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 2.8% (No 97.2%), with $23.2K traded in total and $3.2K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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