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Updated October 16, 2026 · Category: Geopolitics & World · Market end date: December 31, 2026
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 4.5% (No 95.5%), with $102.5K traded in total and $0 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4.5% | -0.4 pts | $102.5K |
| No | 95.5% | +0.4 pts | — |
Total volume $102.5K · 24h volume $0 · Liquidity $17.0K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the UAE officially announces or formally communicates its decision to withdraw from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement or formal communication refers to a statement by the United Arab Emirates government or an entity officially authorized to make such a decision that clearly indicates its decision to withdraw from the Gulf Cooperation Council, including but not limited to a notice of denunciation or equivalent official statement, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UAE government and the GCC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Middle East odds · Oil & Commodities odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 4.5% (No 95.5%), with $102.5K traded in total and $0 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is December 31, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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