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Updated September 23, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: July 1, 2027
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is By June 30, 2027 at 10.5%, followed by By December 31 at 3.5%. The market has $3.90M in total volume and $12.8K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By June 30, 2027 | 10.5% | -1.0 pts | $4.9K |
| By December 31 | 3.5% | -1.5 pts | $2.85M |
| By June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $1.05M |
Total volume $3.90M · 24h volume $12.8K · Liquidity $193.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By June 30, 2027 ■ By December 31 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Russia–Ukraine War odds
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is By June 30, 2027 at 10.5%, followed by By December 31 at 3.5%. The market has $3.90M in total volume and $12.8K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is July 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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