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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 68.5%, followed by By September 30 at 1.4%. The market has $104.0K in total volume and $693 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 68.5% | +2.0 pts | $71.8K |
| By September 30 | 1.4% | -0.1 pts | $652 |
| By June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.5 pts | $29.7K |
| By July 31 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $1.8K |
Total volume $104.0K · 24h volume $693 · Liquidity $18.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 ■ By September 30 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sanae Takaichi meets with Xi Jinping between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Takaichi and Jinping are present and interact with each other in person.
An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: China & Taiwan odds · Politics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 68.5%, followed by By September 30 at 1.4%. The market has $104.0K in total volume and $693 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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