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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: July 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is Democrats 8-10% at 27.5%, followed by Democrats 10-12% at 20.5%, Democrats 6-8% at 17%. The market has $144.9K in total volume and $4.9K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats 8-10% | 27.5% | +1.0 pts | $15.3K |
| Democrats 10-12% | 20.5% | -1.0 pts | $9.7K |
| Democrats 6-8% | 17% | -0.5 pts | $16.4K |
| Democrats 12-14% | 12.6% | +0.1 pts | $5.2K |
| Democrats 4-6% | 10.5% | — | $7.4K |
| Democrats 2-4% | 5.9% | -0.2 pts | $16.7K |
| Republicans 0-2% | 3.6% | +0.1 pts | $6.3K |
| Democrats 14-16% | 3.5% | +0.2 pts | $3.9K |
| Republicans 2-4% | 2.8% | -0.1 pts | $30.7K |
| Democrats 0-2% | 1.9% | -0.1 pts | $20.4K |
| Democrats 16%+ | 1.1% | -0.1 pts | $4.2K |
| Republicans 4-6% | 0.9% | +0.2 pts | $4.4K |
| Republicans 6%+ | 0.8% | -0.4 pts | $4.3K |
Total volume $144.9K · 24h volume $4.9K · Liquidity $262.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Democrats 8-10% ■ Democrats 10-12% ■ Democrats 6-8% · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: 2028 Presidential Election odds · 2026 Midterms odds · Politics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is Democrats 8-10% at 27.5%, followed by Democrats 10-12% at 20.5%, Democrats 6-8% at 17%. The market has $144.9K in total volume and $4.9K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is July 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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