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Updated September 27, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: July 1, 2027
As of September 27, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Kuomintang (KMT) at 88.5%, followed by Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) at 10.0%, Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) at 0.1%. The market has $184.2K in total volume and $467 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kuomintang (KMT) | 88.5% | — | $73.9K |
| Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) | 10.0% | -0.1 pts | $46.3K |
| Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) | 0.1% | — | $64.0K |
Total volume $184.2K · 24h volume $467 · Liquidity $135.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Kuomintang (KMT) ■ Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) ■ Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (mayor or magistrate) elections for Taiwan’s major special municipalities, counties, and cities during these elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Taiwan’s local governments include the following cities, special municipalities, and counties:
Cities/special municipalities (mayoral elections): Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Taichung City, Tainan City, Kaohsiung City, Keelung City, Hsinchu City, Chiayi City
Counties (magistrate elections): Yilan County, Hsinchu County, Miaoli County, Changhua County, Nantou County, Yunlin County, Chiayi County, Pingtung County, Taitung County, Hualien County, Penghu County, Lienchiang County, Kinmen County
Only elections for the listed cities, special municipalities or counties will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant head of local government elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose English name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group.
Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections aren’t known by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · China & Taiwan odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of September 27, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Kuomintang (KMT) at 88.5%, followed by Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) at 10.0%, Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) at 0.1%. The market has $184.2K in total volume and $467 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is July 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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