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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is Alphabet at 58%, followed by Apple at 16%, Microsoft at 16%. The market has $31.5K in total volume and $513 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet | 58% | -0.5 pts | $8.1K |
| Apple | 16% | -4.0 pts | $7.7K |
| Microsoft | 16% | +0.5 pts | $3.9K |
| NVIDIA | 3.8% | +0.8 pts | $4.0K |
| SpaceX | 0.5% | — | $1.8K |
| Amazon | 0.2% | — | $1.5K |
| Tesla | 0.2% | — | $1.9K |
| Broadcom | <0.1% | — | $1.4K |
| Saudi Aramco | <0.1% | — | $1.3K |
Total volume $31.5K · 24h volume $513 · Liquidity $103.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Alphabet ■ Apple ■ Microsoft · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: US Economy odds · Big Tech odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is Alphabet at 58%, followed by Apple at 16%, Microsoft at 16%. The market has $31.5K in total volume and $513 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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