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Updated October 16, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 20, 2026
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Remain 40–60% at 55%, followed by Remain 60–80% at 21.5%, Remain 20–40% at 12.5%. The market has $33.7K in total volume and $1.3K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Remain 40–60% | 55% | — | $6.0K |
| Remain 60–80% | 21.5% | -4.0 pts | $4.4K |
| Remain 20–40% | 12.5% | +2.0 pts | $8.0K |
| Remain 80%+ | 10.7% | +9.6 pts | $2.2K |
| Remain <20% | 5.3% | +4.7 pts | $2.3K |
| Leave wins | 1.6% | -0.7 pts | $10.8K |
Total volume $33.7K · 24h volume $1.3K · Liquidity $110.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Remain 40–60% ■ Remain 60–80% ■ Remain 20–40% · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Alberta is scheduled to hold a provincial referendum on October 19, 2026. Question 10 asks: "Should Alberta remain a province in Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?"
For the purposes of this market, "Remain" refers to the option that Alberta should remain a province in Canada, and "Leave" refers to the option that the Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on separation.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Remain" and "Leave" on Question 10.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Remain" and "Leave". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast on Question 10.
If "Leave" receives more valid votes than "Remain", this market will resolve to "Leave wins".
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Remain" and "Leave" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Remain <20%".
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Alberta, including Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Remain 40–60% at 55%, followed by Remain 60–80% at 21.5%, Remain 20–40% at 12.5%. The market has $33.7K in total volume and $1.3K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 20, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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