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Updated September 23, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 17.5%, followed by By October 31 at 8.5%, By September 30 at 0.7%. The market has $15.13M in total volume and $104.0K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 17.5% | — | $1.09M |
| By October 31 | 8.5% | -2.0 pts | $639.9K |
| By September 30 | 0.7% | -0.2 pts | $3.68M |
| By August 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $2.56M |
| By April 30 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $1.65M |
| By July 31 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $1.44M |
| By May 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.3 pts | $1.34M |
| By June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $1.22M |
| By September 15 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $831.1K |
| By March 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.2 pts | $330.3K |
| By June 15 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $221.1K |
| By June 22 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $129.3K |
Total volume $15.13M · 24h volume $104.0K · Liquidity $320.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 ■ By October 31 ■ By September 30 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730
, including both the chart and downloadable files.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Iran odds · Strait of Hormuz odds · Middle East odds · Oil & Commodities odds
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 17.5%, followed by By October 31 at 8.5%, By September 30 at 0.7%. The market has $15.13M in total volume and $104.0K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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