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Strait of Hormuz Odds on Polymarket

Updated November 7, 2026 · 30 live markets · refreshed twice a day

As of November 7, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 30 live Strait of Hormuz markets with $453.3K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is US announces end of Iranian blockade? (By March 31 69.5%), followed by US-Iran Hormuz Agreement? (By December 31 35.5%), Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? (Yes 9.5%).

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz: closures, blockades and tanker transits. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.

Live Strait of Hormuz markets

MarketLeading outcome24h change24h volumeEnds
US announces end of Iranian blockade?By March 31 69.5%-1.5 pts$308.8KJan 1, 2027
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement?By December 31 35.5%—$92.1KJan 1, 2027
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes 9.5%-0.5 pts$17.5KJan 1, 2027
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Yes 3.2%-0.4 pts$11.2KDec 1, 2026
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control?By December 31 4.5%—$10.6KJan 1, 2027
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed?By December 31 9.5%+2.0 pts$5.0KJan 1, 2027
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?Yes 2.4%+0.1 pts$2.8KJan 1, 2027
Iran charges Hormuz fees?By December 31 9.0%—$1.1KJan 1, 2027
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control?By November 30 3.6%+0.5 pts$827Dec 1, 2026
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of November?25-29 50%+8.0 pts$714Dec 1, 2026
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 90.5%+0.5 pts$697Feb 1, 2027
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by November 30?10+ 23%-0.5 pts$404Dec 1, 2026
How many UKMTO notices November 9–15?8-11 45%-0.5 pts$351Nov 16, 2026
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of November 9?210+ 18%-9.5 pts$326Nov 16, 2026
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?Yes 35%+0.5 pts$284Dec 31, 2026
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of November 2?190-209 47.5%-1.5 pts$240Nov 9, 2026
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control?By December 31 6.8%+4.2 pts$103Jan 1, 2027
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of November 2?25-29 48%-3.0 pts$102Nov 9, 2026
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of November?0-4 54%+3.5 pts$87Dec 1, 2026
0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..?December 31 7.0%-0.5 pts$52Jan 1, 2027
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control?By December 31 3.5%-0.9 pts$15Jan 1, 2027
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?Germany 18%+9.5 pts$10Jan 1, 2027
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control?By December 31 7.0%+0.5 pts$9Jan 1, 2027
How many UKMTO notices November 2–8?4-7 52%-0.5 pts$2Nov 9, 2026
US charges Hormuz fees?By December 31 2.8%—$0Jan 1, 2027
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control?By December 31 1.4%-0.4 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control?By December 31 1.4%-0.7 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
Somali Pirates successfully seize a vessel?By December 31 71%-0.5 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by December 31?Yes 4.5%—$0Jan 1, 2027
Panama Canal effectively closed?By December 31 6.5%-1.5 pts$0Jan 1, 2027

For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.

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Frequently asked questions

What are the Strait of Hormuz odds on Polymarket today?

As of November 7, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 30 live Strait of Hormuz markets with $453.3K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is US announces end of Iranian blockade? (By March 31 69.5%), followed by US-Iran Hormuz Agreement? (By December 31 35.5%), Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? (Yes 9.5%).

How many Strait of Hormuz markets are open on Polymarket?

30 live markets as of November 7, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.

Where do these odds come from?

From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.

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Polymarket View, “Strait of Hormuz odds on Polymarket”, November 7, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/strait-of-hormuz/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).

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