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Strait of Hormuz Odds on Polymarket

Updated September 23, 2026 · 31 live markets · refreshed twice a day

As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, Polymarket lists 31 live Strait of Hormuz markets with $1.19M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is US announces end of Iranian blockade? (By December 31 61.9%), followed by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? (Yes 20.5%), Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed? (By December 31 17.5%).

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz: closures, blockades and tanker transits. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.

Live Strait of Hormuz markets

MarketLeading outcome24h change24h volumeEnds
US announces end of Iranian blockade?By December 31 61.9%-3.0 pts$546.1KJan 1, 2027
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes 20.5%-2.0 pts$324.3KJan 1, 2027
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed?By December 31 17.5%—$104.0KJan 1, 2027
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Yes 0.7%+0.1 pts$40.7KOct 1, 2026
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control?By December 31 5.5%—$27.6KJan 1, 2027
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Yes 8.0%-0.5 pts$25.5KNov 1, 2026
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement?By September 30 7.1%+1.5 pts$23.3KOct 1, 2026
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement?By October 31 34%+1.0 pts$23.2KNov 1, 2026
Iran charges Hormuz fees?By December 31 25%+2.0 pts$15.8KJan 1, 2027
Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?Yes 0.1%-3.1 pts$11.6KDec 31, 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Yes 12.5%-2.5 pts$11.4KDec 1, 2026
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 80.5%+2.5 pts$9.9KFeb 1, 2027
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of September?0-5 84%+13.5 pts$7.8KOct 1, 2026
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 28?190-209 30%—$5.0KOct 4, 2026
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 28?<20 33.5%—$3.2KOct 4, 2026
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of September?25-29 45.5%-14.5 pts$1.6KOct 1, 2026
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 21?20-24 40%—$1.4KSep 27, 2026
Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz?September 23 97.5%+57.0 pts$780Sep 30, 2026
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 21?170-189 53.5%—$645Sep 27, 2026
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30?10+ 9.0%-15.5 pts$581Oct 1, 2026
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?US 27.5%+1.5 pts$397Jan 1, 2027
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?Yes 37%-1.5 pts$183Dec 31, 2026
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control?By September 30 0.5%-0.3 pts$150Oct 1, 2026
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control?By September 30 0.8%-0.7 pts$150Oct 1, 2026
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?Yes 5.4%+0.9 pts$111Jan 1, 2027
0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..?December 31 16.5%+0.5 pts$69Jan 1, 2027
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control?By September 30 0.6%—$0Oct 1, 2026
US charges Hormuz fees?By December 31 5.8%+0.1 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control?By September 30 0.5%-0.1 pts$0Oct 1, 2026
Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control?By September 30 0.5%—$0Oct 1, 2026
Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by December 31?Yes 4.5%-1.5 pts$0Jan 1, 2027

For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.

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Frequently asked questions

What are the Strait of Hormuz odds on Polymarket today?

As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, Polymarket lists 31 live Strait of Hormuz markets with $1.19M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is US announces end of Iranian blockade? (By December 31 61.9%), followed by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? (Yes 20.5%), Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed? (By December 31 17.5%).

How many Strait of Hormuz markets are open on Polymarket?

31 live markets as of September 23, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.

Where do these odds come from?

From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.

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Free JSON

/api/v1/topics/strait-of-hormuz.json — every live market on the topic, CC BY 4.0 (credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link). See the developer docs.

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