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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: October 28, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is No Change at 53.4%, followed by 25 bps increase at 45.1%, 50+ bps increase at 0.2%. The market has $106.1K in total volume and $724 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | 53.4% | -0.1 pts | $40.9K |
| 25 bps increase | 45.1% | -1.0 pts | $32.8K |
| 50+ bps increase | 0.2% | — | $12.3K |
| 25 bps decrease | 0.1% | — | $15.9K |
| 50+ bps decrease | <0.1% | — | $4.3K |
Total volume $106.1K · 24h volume $724 · Liquidity $36.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ No Change ■ 25 bps increase ■ 50+ bps increase · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Canada odds · US Economy odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is No Change at 53.4%, followed by 25 bps increase at 45.1%, 50+ bps increase at 0.2%. The market has $106.1K in total volume and $724 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 28, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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