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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 5, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is PL at 64.5%, followed by UPB at 35%, FE Brasil at 0.9%. The market has $118.6K in total volume and $7 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| PL | 64.5% | +1.0 pts | $48.0K |
| UPB | 35% | -0.9 pts | $17.4K |
| FE Brasil | 0.9% | +0.5 pts | $6.8K |
| MDB | 0.5% | — | $6.3K |
| MISSÃO | 0.1% | — | $8.6K |
| PSD | <0.1% | — | $4.6K |
| PSB | <0.1% | — | $3.4K |
| REPUBLICANOS | <0.1% | — | $3.4K |
| PSDB-CIDADANIA | <0.1% | — | $3.1K |
| Avante | <0.1% | — | $3.1K |
| PRD-SOLIDARIEDADE | <0.1% | — | $3.1K |
| PDT | <0.1% | — | $3.1K |
| PSOL-REDE | <0.1% | — | $2.9K |
| PODE | <0.1% | — | $2.4K |
| NOVO | <0.1% | — | $2.4K |
Total volume $118.6K · 24h volume $7 · Liquidity $302.7K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ PL ■ UPB ■ FE Brasil · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The next federal Chamber of Deputies election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party or electoral federation that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (Câmara dos Deputados) as a result of the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies election.
In the event of a tie between multiple entities for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the entity whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party or electoral federation in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies as a result of the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies election, not by any coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (https://www.camara.leg.br/).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Brazil odds · Politics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is PL at 64.5%, followed by UPB at 35%, FE Brasil at 0.9%. The market has $118.6K in total volume and $7 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 5, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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