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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 5, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is Flavio Bolsonaro at 95%, followed by Lula at 2.5%, Renan Santos at 0.6%. The market has $25.8K in total volume and $5 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flavio Bolsonaro | 95% | +0.5 pts | $8.1K |
| Lula | 2.5% | — | $9.4K |
| Renan Santos | 0.6% | — | $1.4K |
| Veterinário Wilson Grassi | 0.2% | — | $593 |
| Zema | 0.1% | — | $743 |
| Escritor Augusto Cury | 0.1% | — | $714 |
| Samara | 0.1% | — | $700 |
| Pablo Marçal | <0.1% | — | $1.2K |
| Ronaldo Caiado | <0.1% | — | $671 |
| Rui Costa Pimenta | <0.1% | — | $577 |
| Edmilson Costa | <0.1% | — | $576 |
| Clariana Barao | <0.1% | — | $576 |
| Hertz Dias | <0.1% | — | $571 |
Total volume $25.8K · 24h volume $5 · Liquidity $219.0K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Flavio Bolsonaro ■ Lula ■ Renan Santos · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Brazil odds · Politics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is Flavio Bolsonaro at 95%, followed by Lula at 2.5%, Renan Santos at 0.6%. The market has $25.8K in total volume and $5 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 5, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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