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Updated October 19, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 26, 2026
As of October 19, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 78-80% at 58%, followed by 76-78% at 19.5%, 80-82% at 16.5%. The market has $21.8K in total volume and $5.5K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78-80% | 58% | +2.0 pts | $8.6K |
| 76-78% | 19.5% | +1.5 pts | $7.2K |
| 80-82% | 16.5% | — | $2.7K |
| 82%+ | 5.0% | +0.1 pts | $1.3K |
| <76% | 4.4% | +0.1 pts | $1.9K |
Total volume $21.8K · 24h volume $5.5K · Liquidity $126.7K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 78-80% ■ 76-78% ■ 80-82% · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate in the second round of the specified election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters (see 2022 example: https://sig.tse.jus.br/ords/dwapr/r/seai/sig-eleicao-resultados/home-comparecimento-votacao?p0_ano=2022).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be official information published by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 19, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 78-80% at 58%, followed by 76-78% at 19.5%, 80-82% at 16.5%. The market has $21.8K in total volume and $5.5K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 26, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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