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Updated September 28, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 28, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 13%. The market has $1.38M in total volume and $13 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 13% | +0.5 pts | $333.1K |
| By January 9 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $581.9K |
| By January 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $464.7K |
Total volume $1.38M · 24h volume $13 · Liquidity $843. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cilia Flores is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Cilia Flores is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Cilia Flores is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Cilia Flores to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 28, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 13%. The market has $1.38M in total volume and $13 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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