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Venezuela Odds on Polymarket

Updated September 23, 2026 · 24 live markets · refreshed twice a day

As of September 23, 2026 at 15:42 UTC, Polymarket lists 24 live Venezuela markets with $191.7K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Venezuela leader end of 2026? (Nicolás Maduro 59.2%), followed by Maduro Prison Time? (No prison time 54.5%), US strike on Mexico? (By December 31 9.5%).

Venezuela: Maduro, the opposition and US policy toward the country. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.

Live Venezuela markets

MarketLeading outcome24h change24h volumeEnds
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Nicolás Maduro 59.2%+5.0 pts$115.6KJan 1, 2027
Maduro Prison Time?No prison time 54.5%-2.0 pts$34.4KJan 1, 2028
US strike on Mexico?By December 31 9.5%—$13.8KJan 1, 2027
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela?By December 31 41.5%—$10.1KJan 1, 2027
US military action against Cuba?By December 31 14.5%—$6.1KJan 1, 2027
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Yes 6.5%—$4.9KJan 1, 2027
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba?By December 31 15.5%-2.0 pts$3.4KJan 1, 2027
Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?Delcy Rodríguez 92.5%—$2.7KDec 31, 2026
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?Yes 6.5%—$300Jan 1, 2027
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?Yes 6.0%+0.5 pts$209Jan 1, 2027
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela?By December 31 3.4%+0.1 pts$102Jan 1, 2027
US x Cuba economic deal?By December 31 17.5%-1.5 pts$40Jan 1, 2027
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela?By December 31 10.5%-1.0 pts$30Jan 1, 2027
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?Yes 6.5%—$21Jan 1, 2027
Venezuela presidential election scheduled?By December 31 14.5%—$8Dec 31, 2026
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?1.2m 55%-2.0 pts$1Mar 1, 2027
Will Venezuela become 51st state?Yes 2.4%—$0Jan 1, 2027
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?Yes 1.3%-0.5 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?Yes 2.8%—$0Jan 1, 2027
Will US annex any territory in 2026?Yes 4.9%—$0Jan 1, 2027
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?Yes 2.1%+0.1 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
Maduro guilty of all counts?Yes 22%+1.5 pts$0Jan 1, 2028
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel?By December 31 17%-0.5 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
Venezuelan oil added to Strategic Petroleum Reserve?By December 31 7.5%—$0Jan 1, 2027

For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.

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Frequently asked questions

What are the Venezuela odds on Polymarket today?

As of September 23, 2026 at 15:42 UTC, Polymarket lists 24 live Venezuela markets with $191.7K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Venezuela leader end of 2026? (Nicolás Maduro 59.2%), followed by Maduro Prison Time? (No prison time 54.5%), US strike on Mexico? (By December 31 9.5%).

How many Venezuela markets are open on Polymarket?

24 live markets as of September 23, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.

Where do these odds come from?

From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.

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