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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: October 15, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is 2.4% at 48%, followed by 2.5% at 35%, 2.3% at 13.5%. The market has $27.4K in total volume and $1.6K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.4% | 48% | +0.5 pts | $7.9K |
| 2.5% | 35% | +1.5 pts | $5.3K |
| 2.3% | 13.5% | — | $4.9K |
| 2.6% | 7.5% | -2.0 pts | $4.0K |
| ≥2.9% | 0.4% | — | $1.2K |
| 2.7% | 0.4% | — | $1.1K |
| 2.2% | <0.1% | — | $1.1K |
| 2.8% | <0.1% | — | $764 |
| ≤2.0% | <0.1% | — | $638 |
| 2.1% | <0.1% | — | $470 |
Total volume $27.4K · 24h volume $1.6K · Liquidity $8.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 2.4% ■ 2.5% ■ 2.3% · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Inflation & CPI odds · US Economy odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is 2.4% at 48%, followed by 2.5% at 35%, 2.3% at 13.5%. The market has $27.4K in total volume and $1.6K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 15, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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