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Sample collected September 24, 2026 · re-collected weekly · free CSV below
We checked 1008 daily strikes on 90 Bitcoin and Ethereum ladders that settled in the last 45 days, using each strike's price 24 hours before settlement. The side priced above 50% won 95% of the time (65% among the 84 closer calls priced 20–80%), and the Brier score is 0.034 (0 is perfect; always guessing 50% scores 0.25).
| Price 24 h before | Strikes | Average price | Resolved YES | Gap (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 351 | 1.1% | 3.1% | +2.1 |
| 10–20% | 28 | 14.7% | 21.4% | +6.8 |
| 20–30% | 21 | 25.3% | 23.8% | -1.5 |
| 30–40% | 12 | 35.1% | 8.3% | -26.8 |
| 40–50% | 14 | 43.9% | 57.1% | +13.3 |
| 50–60% | 7 | 56.6% | 28.6% | -28.1 |
| 60–70% | 14 | 63.4% | 50.0% | -13.4 |
| 70–80% | 16 | 75.4% | 81.2% | +5.8 |
| 80–90% | 18 | 86.4% | 88.9% | +2.5 |
| 90–100% | 527 | 99.0% | 100.0% | +1.0 |
Bands with few strikes move a lot from week to week. Educational information, not financial advice.
Today's numbers: Bitcoin price prediction · Ethereum price prediction · all markets: How accurate is Polymarket?
We checked 1008 daily strikes on 90 Bitcoin and Ethereum ladders that settled in the last 45 days, using each strike's price 24 hours before settlement. The side priced above 50% won 95% of the time (65% among the 84 closer calls priced 20–80%), and the Brier score is 0.034 (0 is perfect; always guessing 50% scores 0.25).
If strikes priced around 30% a day before settlement finish YES about 30% of the time, the market is well calibrated. The table compares the average price in each band with how often those strikes actually resolved YES.
Polymarket's resolved daily 'above ___ on <date>?' markets for Bitcoin and Ethereum and each strike's hourly YES price history, taken 24 hours before settlement and never after the market closed. The full sample is in the CSV below.
Data: CSV · JSON (CC BY 4.0, attribution: PolymarketTrader.com). Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket or Binance.