Home › Polymarket odds › Crypto price predictions › Bitcoin
Updated November 9, 2026 at 02:03 UTC · refreshed twice a day · daily markets settle at noon ET
Polymarket traders put Bitcoin's price at noon ET on November 9 at about $75,197 (the median implied by the "above" ladder), with a 50% range of $74,263–$76,287. They give 82% to BTC above $74,000 and 28.5% to BTC above $76,000; the single most likely range is $74,000–$76,000 (50%); chance BTC closes higher than the day before: 35%.
| Noon ET on | Median | 50% range | 80% range | Chance of up day | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 9 | $75,197 | $74,263–$76,287 | $72,940–$77,520 | 35% | $489.4K |
| November 10 | $75,201 | $73,754–$76,784 | $72,251–$77,961 | 50% | $102.2K |
| November 11 | $75,174 | $73,333–$77,087 | $71,837–$78,870 | — | $44.3K |
| November 12 | $75,170 | $73,026–$77,366 | $70,889–$79,545 | — | $45.5K |
| November 13 | $75,149 | $72,789–$77,579 | $70,500–$79,913 | — | $18.6K |
| November 14 | $75,182 | $72,703–$77,829 | $70,381–$80,152 | — | $21.2K |
| November 15 | $75,171 | $72,514–$77,833 | $70,174–$80,500 | — | $3.1K |
Median and ranges are read off each day's "above" ladder: the price where the chance of closing above it is 50% (median), 75%–25% (50% range) and 90%–10% (80% range).
| Price | Chance above | |
|---|---|---|
| $70,000 | 99.4% | |
| $72,000 | 97% | |
| $74,000 | 82% | |
| $76,000 | 28.5% | |
| $78,000 | 4.2% | |
| $80,000 | 0.9% |
| Range | Chance | |
|---|---|---|
| $68,000–$70,000 | 1.1% | |
| $70,000–$72,000 | 2.1% | |
| $72,000–$74,000 | 16.4% | |
| $74,000–$76,000 | 50% | |
| $76,000–$78,000 | 25% | |
| $78,000–$80,000 | 2.5% | |
| $80,000–$82,000 | 1.1% |
Bitcoin has already reached $80,000; already dipped to $74,000 in this window.
Every open level is priced below 2% or above 98%.
Bitcoin has already reached $80,000; already dipped to $75,000 in this window.
| Level | Chance |
|---|---|
| ↑ reach $95,000 | 2.2% |
| ↑ reach $92,500 | 4.5% |
| ↑ reach $90,000 | 7.5% |
| ↑ reach $87,500 | 10.5% |
| ↑ reach $85,000 | 20.5% |
| ↑ reach $82,500 | 31.5% |
| ↓ dip to $72,500 | 65.5% |
| ↓ dip to $70,000 | 45.5% |
| ↓ dip to $67,500 | 28.5% |
| ↓ dip to $65,000 | 18.5% |
| ↓ dip to $62,500 | 11.5% |
| ↓ dip to $60,000 | 8.0% |
Bitcoin has already reached $90,000; already dipped to $60,000 in this window.
| Level | Chance |
|---|---|
| ↑ reach $130,000 | 2.1% |
| ↑ reach $120,000 | 2.5% |
| ↑ reach $110,000 | 3.1% |
| ↑ reach $100,000 | 7.5% |
| ↑ reach $95,000 | 11.5% |
| ↓ dip to $70,000 | 60.5% |
| ↓ dip to $55,000 | 9.5% |
| ↓ dip to $50,000 | 7.5% |
| ↓ dip to $45,000 | 2.9% |
| ↓ dip to $40,000 | 2.7% |
Educational information, not financial advice. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not quotes you can trade at.
🇪🇸 Predicción del precio de Bitcoin en español · 🇧🇷 Previsão do preço do Bitcoin em português
More: Ethereum price prediction · Solana price prediction · XRP price prediction · All Bitcoin markets · All crypto price predictions · How accurate are these markets? · Price probability calculator · Crypto odds
A compact card with the next daily median, the 50% range and the levels near the middle, for your site or newsletter; it updates twice a day. Keep the link under the card: it is the attribution (CC BY 4.0). On a light page add ?theme=light to the card address.
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/crypto/bitcoin/" width="100%" height="260" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Bitcoin price odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/bitcoin-price-prediction/">Bitcoin price prediction</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
Quoting these numbers in an article, a paper or a newsletter? Copy this citation and keep the date, because prices move. Tips: how to cite Polymarket odds.
Polymarket View, “Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction from Polymarket odds”, November 9, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/bitcoin-price-prediction/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket traders put Bitcoin's price at noon ET on November 9 at about $75,197 (the median implied by the "above" ladder), with a 50% range of $74,263–$76,287. They give 82% to BTC above $74,000 and 28.5% to BTC above $76,000; the single most likely range is $74,000–$76,000 (50%); chance BTC closes higher than the day before: 35%.
From Polymarket's daily "Bitcoin above ___ on <date>?" markets, which settle on the Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle close at 12:00 ET. Each strike's Yes price is the market's chance that BTC closes above it; the median is where that chance crosses 50%, and the 50% range runs from the 75% to the 25% strike.
Polymarket's "Bitcoin Up or Down on November 9" market gives 35% to up versus the previous day's noon ET close.
Daily price ladders track volatility, not a forecast of direction: the implied range is as wide as traders think the next day's moves can be. Our accuracy study measures how often Polymarket favourites win across resolved markets: polymarkettrader.com/odds/accuracy/.
Free JSON: /api/v1/crypto-prices.json (CC BY 4.0). Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket or Binance.