Home › Polymarket odds › Crypto price predictions › Bitcoin
Updated October 10, 2026 at 17:38 UTC · refreshed twice a day · daily markets settle at noon ET
Polymarket traders put Bitcoin's price at noon ET on October 11 at about $83,058 (the median implied by the "above" ladder), with a 50% range of $82,477–$83,640. They give 95.5% to BTC above $82,000 and 9.5% to BTC above $84,000; the single most likely range is $82,000–$84,000 (85.5%); chance BTC closes higher than the day before: 53.5%.
| Noon ET on | Median | 50% range | 80% range | Chance of up day | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 11 | $83,058 | $82,477–$83,640 | $82,128–$83,988 | 53.5% | $201.0K |
| October 12 | $83,117 | $82,216–$84,045 | $80,932–$85,387 | 50% | $86.9K |
| October 13 | $83,111 | $81,773–$84,549 | $80,409–$85,725 | — | $50.7K |
| October 14 | $83,114 | $81,476–$84,760 | $80,048–$85,960 | — | $27.3K |
| October 15 | $83,148 | $81,250–$85,043 | $79,375–$86,804 | — | $14.3K |
| October 16 | $83,091 | $81,024–$85,220 | $79,000–$87,217 | — | $5.0K |
| October 17 | $78,222 | — | — | — | $80 |
Median and ranges are read off each day's "above" ladder: the price where the chance of closing above it is 50% (median), 75%–25% (50% range) and 90%–10% (80% range).
| Price | Chance above | |
|---|---|---|
| $80,000 | 99.2% | |
| $82,000 | 95.5% | |
| $84,000 | 9.5% | |
| $86,000 | 1.1% |
| Range | Chance | |
|---|---|---|
| $78,000–$80,000 | 0.6% | |
| $80,000–$82,000 | 4.5% | |
| $82,000–$84,000 | 85.5% | |
| $84,000–$86,000 | 9.0% | |
| $86,000–$88,000 | 0.5% |
Bitcoin has already reached $86,000; already dipped to $82,000 in this window.
| Level | Chance |
|---|---|
| ↑ reach $84,000 | 37.5% |
| ↓ dip to $80,000 | 2.9% |
Bitcoin has already reached $85,000; already dipped to $82,500 in this window.
| Level | Chance |
|---|---|
| ↑ reach $100,000 | 2.9% |
| ↑ reach $97,500 | 5.5% |
| ↑ reach $95,000 | 10.5% |
| ↑ reach $92,500 | 19.5% |
| ↑ reach $90,000 | 33.5% |
| ↑ reach $87,500 | 48.5% |
| ↓ dip to $80,000 | 63.5% |
| ↓ dip to $77,500 | 37.5% |
| ↓ dip to $75,000 | 22.5% |
| ↓ dip to $72,500 | 12.5% |
| ↓ dip to $70,000 | 8.5% |
| ↓ dip to $67,500 | 4.2% |
Bitcoin has already reached $90,000; already dipped to $60,000 in this window.
| Level | Chance |
|---|---|
| ↑ reach $160,000 | 2.1% |
| ↑ reach $150,000 | 2.8% |
| ↑ reach $140,000 | 3.0% |
| ↑ reach $130,000 | 4.3% |
| ↑ reach $120,000 | 6.5% |
| ↑ reach $110,000 | 11.5% |
| ↑ reach $100,000 | 28.5% |
| ↑ reach $95,000 | 39.5% |
| ↓ dip to $70,000 | 34.5% |
| ↓ dip to $55,000 | 8.5% |
| ↓ dip to $50,000 | 6.5% |
| ↓ dip to $45,000 | 4.9% |
Educational information, not financial advice. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not quotes you can trade at.
🇪🇸 Predicción del precio de Bitcoin en español · 🇧🇷 Previsão do preço do Bitcoin em português
More: Ethereum price prediction · Solana price prediction · XRP price prediction · All Bitcoin markets · All crypto price predictions · How accurate are these markets? · Price probability calculator · Crypto odds
A compact card with the next daily median, the 50% range and the levels near the middle, for your site or newsletter; it updates twice a day. Keep the link under the card: it is the attribution (CC BY 4.0). On a light page add ?theme=light to the card address.
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/crypto/bitcoin/" width="100%" height="260" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Bitcoin price odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/bitcoin-price-prediction/">Bitcoin price prediction</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
Quoting these numbers in an article, a paper or a newsletter? Copy this citation and keep the date, because prices move. Tips: how to cite Polymarket odds.
Polymarket View, “Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction from Polymarket odds”, October 10, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/bitcoin-price-prediction/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket traders put Bitcoin's price at noon ET on October 11 at about $83,058 (the median implied by the "above" ladder), with a 50% range of $82,477–$83,640. They give 95.5% to BTC above $82,000 and 9.5% to BTC above $84,000; the single most likely range is $82,000–$84,000 (85.5%); chance BTC closes higher than the day before: 53.5%.
From Polymarket's daily "Bitcoin above ___ on <date>?" markets, which settle on the Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle close at 12:00 ET. Each strike's Yes price is the market's chance that BTC closes above it; the median is where that chance crosses 50%, and the 50% range runs from the 75% to the 25% strike.
Polymarket's "Bitcoin Up or Down on October 11" market gives 53.5% to up versus the previous day's noon ET close.
Daily price ladders track volatility, not a forecast of direction: the implied range is as wide as traders think the next day's moves can be. Our accuracy study measures how often Polymarket favourites win across resolved markets: polymarkettrader.com/odds/accuracy/.
Free JSON: /api/v1/crypto-prices.json (CC BY 4.0). Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket or Binance.