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Updated September 24, 2026 at 17:36 UTC · refreshed twice a day · daily markets settle at noon ET
Polymarket traders put Bitcoin's price at noon ET on September 25 at about $84,510 (the median implied by the "above" ladder), with a 50% range of $83,187–$85,531. They give 62.5% to BTC above $84,000 and 13.5% to BTC above $86,000; the single most likely range is $84,000–$86,000 (47.5%); chance BTC closes higher than the day before: 52.5%.
| Noon ET on | Median | 50% range | 80% range | Chance of up day | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 25 | $84,510 | $83,187–$85,531 | $82,211–$86,670 | 52.5% | $668.9K |
| September 26 | $84,475 | $82,967–$85,725 | $81,868–$87,203 | 50% | $236.4K |
| September 27 | $84,486 | $82,877–$85,838 | $81,465–$87,459 | — | $106.5K |
| September 28 | $84,441 | $82,655–$86,211 | $80,868–$87,789 | — | $110.8K |
| September 29 | $84,415 | $82,440–$86,471 | $80,480–$88,491 | — | $33.9K |
| September 30 | $84,400 | $82,217–$86,824 | $80,148–$89,111 | — | $7.6K |
| October 1 | $84,300 | $82,000–$87,000 | $79,833–$89,217 | — | $300 |
Median and ranges are read off each day's "above" ladder: the price where the chance of closing above it is 50% (median), 75%–25% (50% range) and 90%–10% (80% range).
| Price | Chance above | |
|---|---|---|
| $80,000 | 98.4% | |
| $82,000 | 93.2% | |
| $84,000 | 62.5% | |
| $86,000 | 13.5% | |
| $88,000 | 3.0% | |
| $90,000 | 0.6% |
| Range | Chance | |
|---|---|---|
| $76,000–$78,000 | 0.8% | |
| $78,000–$80,000 | 1.4% | |
| $80,000–$82,000 | 4.9% | |
| $82,000–$84,000 | 33.5% | |
| $84,000–$86,000 | 47.5% | |
| $86,000–$88,000 | 12.4% | |
| $88,000–$90,000 | 2.0% | |
| above $90,000 | 0.7% |
Bitcoin has already reached $86,000; already dipped to $84,000 in this window.
| Level | Chance |
|---|---|
| ↑ reach $90,000 | 3.5% |
| ↑ reach $88,000 | 13.5% |
| ↓ dip to $82,000 | 30.5% |
| ↓ dip to $80,000 | 7.5% |
| ↓ dip to $78,000 | 2.1% |
Bitcoin has already reached $85,000; already dipped to $75,000 in this window.
| Level | Chance |
|---|---|
| ↑ reach $95,000 | 3.1% |
| ↑ reach $92,500 | 6.8% |
| ↑ reach $90,000 | 14.4% |
| ↑ reach $87,500 | 36.5% |
| ↓ dip to $82,500 | 61.5% |
Bitcoin has already reached $90,000; already dipped to $60,000 in this window.
| Level | Chance |
|---|---|
| ↑ reach $170,000 | 2.1% |
| ↑ reach $160,000 | 2.9% |
| ↑ reach $150,000 | 3.3% |
| ↑ reach $140,000 | 4.8% |
| ↑ reach $130,000 | 8.1% |
| ↑ reach $120,000 | 11.5% |
| ↑ reach $110,000 | 18.5% |
| ↑ reach $100,000 | 36% |
| ↑ reach $95,000 | 52% |
| ↓ dip to $70,000 | 34.5% |
| ↓ dip to $55,000 | 10.5% |
| ↓ dip to $50,000 | 8.0% |
Educational information, not financial advice. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not quotes you can trade at.
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Polymarket traders put Bitcoin's price at noon ET on September 25 at about $84,510 (the median implied by the "above" ladder), with a 50% range of $83,187–$85,531. They give 62.5% to BTC above $84,000 and 13.5% to BTC above $86,000; the single most likely range is $84,000–$86,000 (47.5%); chance BTC closes higher than the day before: 52.5%.
From Polymarket's daily "Bitcoin above ___ on <date>?" markets, which settle on the Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle close at 12:00 ET. Each strike's Yes price is the market's chance that BTC closes above it; the median is where that chance crosses 50%, and the 50% range runs from the 75% to the 25% strike.
Polymarket's "Bitcoin Up or Down on September 25" market gives 52.5% to up versus the previous day's noon ET close.
Daily price ladders track volatility, not a forecast of direction: the implied range is as wide as traders think the next day's moves can be. Our accuracy study measures how often Polymarket favourites win across resolved markets: polymarkettrader.com/odds/accuracy/.
Free JSON: /api/v1/crypto-prices.json (CC BY 4.0). Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket or Binance.