Dem sweep & US-Iran ceasefire through 2027? — Polymarket Odds

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of (1) whether the Democratic Party wins control of both the United States House of Representatives and the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election and (2) whether the United States refrains from a qualifying military action against Iran through the end of 2027.

Options beginning "Dem sweep" require the Democratic Party to win control of both chambers. Options beginning "No Dem sweep" require the Democratic Party not to win control of at least one of the two chambers. Each option then names the result of the second component ("Ceasefire holds" or "Ceasefire broken"), as defined below. The option matching both results will resolve to "Yes", and all other options will resolve to "No".

US-Iran ceasefire: This component is "Ceasefire broken" if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise, it is "Ceasefire holds".

A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.

The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; surface-to-air missile strikes; small-arms fire; ground incursions; cyber operations; naval gunfire and artillery fire; howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.

Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.

“Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify.

The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this component will remain undetermined until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the …