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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 4.0%. The market has $824.3K in total volume and $0 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 4.0% | — | $29.5K |
| By June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.2 pts | $492.2K |
| By May 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.2 pts | $302.6K |
Total volume $824.3K · 24h volume $0 · Liquidity $24.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 4.0%. The market has $824.3K in total volume and $0 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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