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Updated October 8, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 4, 2026
As of October 8, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems at 33.5%, followed by Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Dems at 28%, Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Reps at 11%. The market has $28.9K in total volume and $12.9K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems | 33.5% | -4.0 pts | $24.9K |
| Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Dems | 28% | -0.5 pts | $752 |
| Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Reps | 11% | -1.5 pts | $859 |
| Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Reps | 10.5% | +1.5 pts | $255 |
| Lula, Netanyahu, Reps | 6.4% | +2.8 pts | $337 |
| Lula, Eizenkot, Reps | 6.1% | +1.6 pts | $301 |
| Lula, Netanyahu, Dems | 6.0% | +1.0 pts | $369 |
| Lula, Eizenkot, Dems | 4.5% | — | $371 |
| Bolsonaro, Bennett, Dems | 3.8% | +0.1 pts | $176 |
| Bolsonaro, Bennett, Reps | 3.7% | -1.0 pts | $181 |
| Lula, Bennett, Dems | 3.2% | — | $201 |
| Lula, Bennett, Reps | 1.6% | +0.1 pts | $201 |
Total volume $28.9K · 24h volume $12.9K · Liquidity $174.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems ■ Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Dems ■ Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Reps · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The runoff round of the Brazilian presidential election is scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. Legislative elections in Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. The United States midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to the single listed outcome that matches all three of the following: the winner of the Brazilian presidential election, the first Prime Minister of Israel to be sworn in as a result of the election, and the party that wins control of the United States Senate in the midterm elections.
For full rules for the Brazilian presidential election, click here: https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election
For full rules for the Israeli Prime Minister, click here: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election
For full rules for the United States Senate control, click here: https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026
Additional options may be added to this market between market creation and resolution.
In the event that any constituent market resolves to "Other," this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve according to the sources named in the three markets linked above.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: 2026 Midterms odds · Senate Races odds · Brazil odds · Israel odds
As of October 8, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems at 33.5%, followed by Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Dems at 28%, Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Reps at 11%. The market has $28.9K in total volume and $12.9K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 4, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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