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Updated November 7, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: April 28, 2027
As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is No change at 59%, followed by 25 bps increase at 16%, 25 bps decrease at 9.0%. The market has $47.8K in total volume and $2.3K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 59% | +0.5 pts | $12.3K |
| 25 bps increase | 16% | -0.5 pts | $26.4K |
| 25 bps decrease | 9.0% | — | $4.1K |
| 50+ bps decrease | 4.2% | — | $3.1K |
| 50+ bps increase | 1.9% | +0.2 pts | $1.8K |
Total volume $47.8K · 24h volume $2.3K · Liquidity $209.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ No change ■ 25 bps increase ■ 25 bps decrease · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled to conclude on April 28, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Fed & Interest Rates odds · US Economy odds
As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is No change at 59%, followed by 25 bps increase at 16%, 25 bps decrease at 9.0%. The market has $47.8K in total volume and $2.3K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is April 28, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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