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Updated November 12, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2028
As of November 12, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 7.8% (No 92.2%), with $21.0K traded in total and $256 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7.8% | +0.4 pts | $21.0K |
| No | 92.2% | -0.4 pts | — |
Total volume $21.0K · 24h volume $256 · Liquidity $19.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Yes ■ No · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the French government fails to make a scheduled payment on any French government note, bond, or bill at any point between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any French sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the French Treasury (Agence France Trésor), Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of November 12, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes at 7.8% (No 92.2%), with $21.0K traded in total and $256 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2028. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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