Home › Polymarket odds › Politics & Elections
Updated October 19, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: April 18, 2027
As of October 19, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Édouard Philippe at 33.5%, followed by Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 30.5%, Marine Le Pen at 12.5%. The market has $20.3K in total volume and $4.1K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Édouard Philippe | 33.5% | -4.0 pts | $1.8K |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 30.5% | -0.5 pts | $1.9K |
| Marine Le Pen | 12.5% | -2.0 pts | $3.9K |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 12.5% | +4.0 pts | $3.0K |
| David Lisnard | 7.9% | -2.0 pts | $1.5K |
| Bruno Retailleau | 1.6% | -0.4 pts | $1.0K |
| François Hollande | 1.6% | -0.2 pts | $935 |
| Gabriel Attal | 1.3% | -0.2 pts | $827 |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 0.5% | — | $894 |
| Christine Lagarde | 0.5% | +0.2 pts | $796 |
| Éric Zemmour | 0.5% | — | $550 |
| Dominique de Villepin | 0.3% | -0.1 pts | $685 |
| Jordan Bardella | 0.2% | — | $756 |
| Marine Tondelier | 0.1% | -0.1 pts | $661 |
| François Ruffin | <0.1% | -0.2 pts | $614 |
1 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $20.3K · 24h volume $4.1K · Liquidity $280.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Édouard Philippe ■ Jean-Luc Mélenchon ■ Marine Le Pen · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
🔔 Get alerts when big markets move — free Telegram watchlist
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in France on April 18, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · France odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 19, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Édouard Philippe at 33.5%, followed by Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 30.5%, Marine Le Pen at 12.5%. The market has $20.3K in total volume and $4.1K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is April 18, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
Paste this on your site, blog or newsletter. It updates with our page. How to embed
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/odds/french-presidential-election-first-round-2nd-place/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="French Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/french-presidential-election-first-round-2nd-place/">French Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/odds/french-presidential-election-first-round-2nd-place.json — CC BY 4.0, credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link. See the developer docs.
Polymarket View, “French Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place — Polymarket odds”, October 19, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/french-presidential-election-first-round-2nd-place/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
For READMEs, newsletters and forums. Markdown:
[](https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/french-presidential-election-first-round-2nd-place/)
HTML:
<a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/french-presidential-election-first-round-2nd-place/"><img src="https://polymarkettrader.com/badge/odds/french-presidential-election-first-round-2nd-place.svg" alt="French Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place odds on Polymarket" width="400" height="64"></a>
Polymarket View is an independent research site, not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All Polymarket odds · Event hubs · Blog