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Updated October 16, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: April 18, 2027
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Marine Le Pen at 86%, followed by Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 10.9%, David Lisnard at 2.5%. The market has $30.9K in total volume and $4.9K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 86% | -0.5 pts | $10.5K |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 10.9% | +4.2 pts | $4.7K |
| David Lisnard | 2.5% | -0.2 pts | $2.8K |
| Jordan Bardella | 2.5% | -1.2 pts | $2.4K |
| Édouard Philippe | 0.4% | -0.6 pts | $1.8K |
| Gabriel Attal | 0.4% | +0.1 pts | $694 |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 0.3% | — | $1.5K |
| François Hollande | 0.3% | +0.1 pts | $734 |
| Marine Tondelier | 0.2% | -0.1 pts | $715 |
| Christine Lagarde | 0.2% | -0.1 pts | $699 |
| Éric Zemmour | 0.1% | — | $799 |
| Sarah Knafo | 0.1% | -0.1 pts | $719 |
| Dominique de Villepin | 0.1% | -0.1 pts | $719 |
| François Ruffin | <0.1% | -0.1 pts | $755 |
| Bruno Retailleau | <0.1% | -0.1 pts | $734 |
1 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $30.9K · 24h volume $4.9K · Liquidity $297.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Marine Le Pen ■ Jean-Luc Mélenchon ■ David Lisnard · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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A presidential election is scheduled to take place in France on April 18, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · France odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Marine Le Pen at 86%, followed by Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 10.9%, David Lisnard at 2.5%. The market has $30.9K in total volume and $4.9K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is April 18, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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