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Resolved market · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: December 1, 2026
This market has closed. At the last update (November 9, 2026 at 00:50 UTC) it had settled on By October 31, By October 15, By October 13, By November 30, By October 14, By October 16, By October 23, after $1.77M of total trading volume.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By October 31 | 100% | +11.5 pts | $271.4K |
| By October 15 | 100% | +28.9 pts | $245.7K |
| By October 13 | 100% | +58.5 pts | $114.9K |
| By November 30 | 100% | +2.4 pts | $91.1K |
| By October 14 | 100% | +32.5 pts | $60.2K |
| By October 16 | 100% | +30.4 pts | $46.8K |
| By October 23 | 100% | +16.4 pts | $39.4K |
| By September 30 | 0.0% | -24.7 pts | $644.2K |
| By June 30 | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $92.2K |
| By August 31 | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $61.7K |
| By October 10 | 0.0% | -2.8 pts | $39.9K |
| By October 12 | 0.0% | -3.7 pts | $24.5K |
| By July 31 | 0.0% | -0.4 pts | $19.1K |
| By September 15 | 0.0% | -0.8 pts | $10.1K |
| By October 5 | 0.0% | -3.6 pts | $5.3K |
2 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $1.77M · 24h volume $0 · Liquidity $0. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By October 31 ■ By October 15 ■ By October 13 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds
This market has closed. At the last update (November 9, 2026 at 00:50 UTC) it had settled on By October 31, By October 15, By October 13, By November 30, By October 14, By October 16, By October 23, after $1.77M of total trading volume.
The event's listed end date is December 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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