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Updated November 7, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 98.5%, followed by By November 30 at 97.9%, By November 13 at 78.5%. The market has $248.4K in total volume and $12.5K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 98.5% | +0.1 pts | $18.2K |
| By November 30 | 97.9% | +0.5 pts | $32.1K |
| By November 13 | 78.5% | -1.0 pts | $28.0K |
| By November 15 | 78% | -3.0 pts | $53.0K |
| By November 11 | 63% | -7.0 pts | $36.2K |
| By November 9 | 4.4% | +2.6 pts | $26.6K |
| By November 6 | 0.8% | -0.4 pts | $24.6K |
| By October 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -1.2 pts | $15.3K |
| By November 4 (settled) | 0.0% | -1.4 pts | $11.2K |
| By November 2 (settled) | 0.0% | -1.4 pts | $3.3K |
Total volume $248.4K · 24h volume $12.5K · Liquidity $51.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 ■ By November 30 ■ By November 13 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google releases "Carbon" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Carbon" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by the listed date to be the same model previously codenamed "Carbon". Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds · Big Tech odds
As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 98.5%, followed by By November 30 at 97.9%, By November 13 at 78.5%. The market has $248.4K in total volume and $12.5K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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