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Resolved market · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: July 1, 2027
This market has closed. At the last update (November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC) it had settled on 1520+, 1540+, 1530+, after $29.9K of total trading volume.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1520+ | 100% | — | $12.0K |
| 1540+ | 100% | — | $6.7K |
| 1530+ | 100% | — | $5.9K |
| 1550+ | 0.0% | — | $3.1K |
| 1560+ | 0.0% | — | $2.2K |
Total volume $29.9K · 24h volume $0 · Liquidity $0. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 1520+ ■ 1530+ · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Google "Carbon" model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Carbon" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model listed under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon, will qualify only if it is confirmed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed "Carbon". Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered.
If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score …
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds · Big Tech odds
This market has closed. At the last update (November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC) it had settled on 1520+, 1540+, 1530+, after $29.9K of total trading volume.
The event's listed end date is July 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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