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Updated October 5, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 5, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 29.5%. The market has $27.4K in total volume and $1.7K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 29.5% | +20.0 pts | $3.8K |
| By June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.9 pts | $23.7K |
Total volume $27.4K · 24h volume $1.7K · Liquidity $437. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Google LLC and SpaceX officially announce an agreement related to launching, developing, operating, or partnering on orbital data centers or orbital computing infrastructure by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying agreements include launch agreements, strategic partnerships, joint ventures, infrastructure agreements, or other formal commercial arrangements directly related to orbital data centers or space-based computing infrastructure.
Announcements by Google, SpaceX, Alphabet Inc., or their authorized representatives will qualify, regardless of whether the agreement has closed, been fully executed, or entered into force.
Non-binding discussions, reports of negotiations, rumors, exploratory talks, or agreements unrelated to orbital data centers or orbital computing infrastructure will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Google, Alphabet, or SpaceX, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 5, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 29.5%. The market has $27.4K in total volume and $1.7K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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