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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is 60%+ at 60%, followed by 65%+ at 45%, 70%+ at 20%. The market has $84.4K in total volume and $6.3K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60%+ | 60% | +6.5 pts | $47.5K |
| 65%+ | 45% | +16.5 pts | $22.1K |
| 70%+ | 20% | — | $6.9K |
| 75%+ | 12.5% | — | $3.7K |
| 80%+ | 7.2% | +0.1 pts | $1.7K |
| 90%+ | 5.3% | — | $2.5K |
Total volume $84.4K · 24h volume $6.3K · Liquidity $8.7K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 60%+ ■ 65%+ ■ 70%+ · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is 60%+ at 60%, followed by 65%+ at 45%, 70%+ at 20%. The market has $84.4K in total volume and $6.3K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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