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Updated November 7, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 22.5%, followed by November 30 at 9.5%. The market has $165.0K in total volume and $8.8K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 22.5% | -6.0 pts | $85.4K |
| November 30 | 9.5% | -1.0 pts | $71.1K |
| October 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $8.5K |
Total volume $165.0K · 24h volume $8.8K · Liquidity $45.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ December 31 ■ November 30 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis capture Taiz, Yemen between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf.
The Houthis will be considered to have captured Taiz if the Houthis have established primary military control over Al-Qahira Castle (Cairo Castle) in Taiz city. The Houthis having established primary military control over an area of Taiz city encompassing Al-Qahira Castle will be sufficient, unless credible reporting indicates the castle itself remains outside Houthi control.
Primary military control must be clearly demonstrated by this market’s resolution sources to qualify. Control which is credibly contested or disputed, or not clearly evidenced, will not qualify.
Temporary raids, infiltration, isolated incursions, special operations, bombardment, shelling, sabotage, siege or encirclement of the city, or temporary disruption of government activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of capture will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual Houthi control has been established.
If the occurrence or timing of a potentially qualifying capture cannot be determined on the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market may remain open for three calendar days (ET) after the specified date. If Houthi control as defined above is not confirmed by this market’s resolution sources by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Only control established on or before the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, will be considered.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and photo or video evidence of Houthi control.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of November 7, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 22.5%, followed by November 30 at 9.5%. The market has $165.0K in total volume and $8.8K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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