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Updated October 2, 2026 · Category: Geopolitics & World · Market end date: October 31, 2026
As of October 2, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By October 31 at 36%, followed by By October 15 at 34%, By September 30 at 9.5%. The market has $127.5K in total volume and $703 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By October 31 | 36% | -11.5 pts | $458 |
| By October 15 | 34% | -11.5 pts | $12.3K |
| By September 30 | 9.5% | — | $12.7K |
| By September 23 (settled) | 0.0% | -5.9 pts | $49.6K |
| By September 18 (settled) | 0.0% | -3.6 pts | $32.3K |
| By September 15 (settled) | 0.0% | -1.2 pts | $8.4K |
| By September 13 (settled) | 0.0% | +0.1 pts | $7.2K |
| By September 11 (settled) | 0.0% | -2.8 pts | $4.8K |
Total volume $127.5K · 24h volume $703 · Liquidity $350. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By October 31 ■ By October 15 ■ By September 30 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Iran odds · Middle East odds · Oil & Commodities odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 2, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By October 31 at 36%, followed by By October 15 at 34%, By September 30 at 9.5%. The market has $127.5K in total volume and $703 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 31, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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