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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: February 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is Above 4.5% at 17%, followed by Above 5% at 8.5%, Above 6% at 4.2%. The market has $1.46M in total volume and $718 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4% (settled) | 100% | +2.0 pts | $292.4K |
| Above 3% (settled) | 100% | +1.5 pts | $280.0K |
| Above 3.5% (settled) | 100% | +0.1 pts | $176.7K |
| Above 4.5% | 17% | -0.5 pts | $207.9K |
| Above 5% | 8.5% | — | $333.7K |
| Above 6% | 4.2% | — | $69.0K |
| Above 8% | 3.0% | — | $42.1K |
| Above 10% | 2.8% | — | $60.0K |
Total volume $1.46M · 24h volume $718 · Liquidity $70.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Above 4.5% ■ Above 5% ■ Above 6% · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Inflation & CPI odds · US Economy odds · Politics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is Above 4.5% at 17%, followed by Above 5% at 8.5%, Above 6% at 4.2%. The market has $1.46M in total volume and $718 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is February 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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