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Updated September 23, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is 4 at 75.9%, followed by 5 at 15%, 6 at 3.8%. The market has $7.57M in total volume and $124 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 75.9% | -0.4 pts | $1.37M |
| 5 | 15% | +0.4 pts | $549.1K |
| 6 | 3.8% | -0.2 pts | $652.7K |
| 7 | 2.1% | -0.1 pts | $619.5K |
| 15+ | 2.1% | -0.4 pts | $195.8K |
| 10 | 1.5% | +0.2 pts | $401.5K |
| 8 | 1.1% | -0.8 pts | $531.2K |
| 9 | 0.7% | -0.2 pts | $237.7K |
| 14 | 0.5% | — | $192.8K |
| 12 | 0.5% | — | $229.2K |
| 13 | 0.2% | — | $355.4K |
| 11 | 0.1% | — | $143.5K |
| 3 (settled) | 0.0% | -34.2 pts | $1.96M |
| 1 (settled) | 0.0% | -1.0 pts | $87.3K |
| 0 (settled) | 0.0% | -1.1 pts | $38.3K |
1 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $7.57M · 24h volume $124 · Liquidity $326.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 4 ■ 5 ■ 6 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Iran odds · Israel odds · Middle East odds
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is 4 at 75.9%, followed by 5 at 15%, 6 at 3.8%. The market has $7.57M in total volume and $124 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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