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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 27, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is 1 at 64.5%, followed by 2 at 29%, 3 at 4.0%. The market has $45.0K in total volume and $1.4K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 64.5% | -1.0 pts | $17.4K |
| 2 | 29% | +3.5 pts | $17.7K |
| 3 | 4.0% | +0.3 pts | $3.6K |
| 4 | 2.1% | +0.4 pts | $2.7K |
| 0 | 0.7% | -0.4 pts | $2.1K |
| 5+ | <0.1% | — | $1.4K |
Total volume $45.0K · 24h volume $1.4K · Liquidity $66.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 1 ■ 2 ■ 3 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the number of Israeli legislative elections that occur between market creation and the formation of a government in the Knesset or December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes earlier.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of elections that occur, where occurrence is defined as nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel. Publication of an election’s results will have no bearing on this market.
Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the dates of general election-day voting will count.
A government will be considered formed if it passes a vote of confidence in the Knesset.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Israel odds · Politics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is 1 at 64.5%, followed by 2 at 29%, 3 at 4.0%. The market has $45.0K in total volume and $1.4K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 27, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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