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Updated September 29, 2026 · Category: Geopolitics & World · Market end date: October 4, 2026
As of September 29, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 20-24 at 27.5%, followed by 25-29 at 23%, 35-39 at 16.9%. The market has $21.8K in total volume and $3.1K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20-24 | 27.5% | -9.5 pts | $4.3K |
| 25-29 | 23% | +5.0 pts | $4.5K |
| 35-39 | 16.9% | +11.3 pts | $1.1K |
| 30-34 | 14.5% | +1.5 pts | $2.1K |
| <20 | 11% | -6.5 pts | $4.7K |
| 40+ | 6.5% | +2.5 pts | $5.1K |
Total volume $21.8K · 24h volume $3.1K · Liquidity $94.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 20-24 ■ 25-29 ■ 35-39 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 28, 2026, through October 4, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Iran odds · Strait of Hormuz odds · Oil & Commodities odds · Geopolitics odds
As of September 29, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 20-24 at 27.5%, followed by 25-29 at 23%, 35-39 at 16.9%. The market has $21.8K in total volume and $3.1K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 4, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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