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Updated September 23, 2026 · Category: Geopolitics & World · Market end date: January 26, 2027
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 24%, followed by By October 31 at 10%, By September 30 at 3.2%. The market has $9.72M in total volume and $15.1K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 24% | -0.5 pts | $344.6K |
| By October 31 | 10% | -1.0 pts | $8.4K |
| By September 30 | 3.2% | -0.5 pts | $912.7K |
| By July 15 (settled) | 0.0% | -2.5 pts | $2.77M |
| By July 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -1.1 pts | $2.27M |
| By August 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -2.5 pts | $1.54M |
| By August 15 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.3 pts | $770.7K |
| By July 24 (settled) | 0.0% | -8.9 pts | $503.5K |
| By July 27 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.2 pts | $252.2K |
| By July 21 (settled) | 0.0% | -2.5 pts | $239.1K |
| By June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | +0.3 pts | $115.1K |
Total volume $9.72M · 24h volume $15.1K · Liquidity $43.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 ■ By October 31 ■ By September 30 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Iran odds
As of September 23, 2026 at 15:49 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 24%, followed by By October 31 at 10%, By September 30 at 3.2%. The market has $9.72M in total volume and $15.1K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 26, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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